Simcoe-Muskoka’s medical officer of health is concerned that the relaxation of stay-at-home orders could very well result in a jump in COVID-19 cases locally.
That worry is compounded by the confirmation of the deadly UK variant — which devastated the Roberta Place long-term care home in Barrie and is now active in two other Simcoe County outbreaks — is now in the community.
“It is quite a bit more likely that we will start to see cases rise again” resulting from the newly relaxed rules, Dr. Charles Gardner said Tuesday during a weekly call with reporters.
“Now that we have multiple locations with the UK variant in Simcoe-Muskoka, I would prefer that we’d been able to keep that control measure. I think the risk that we’re now taking is that we have more transmissions, we may have a greater degree of transmissions of this much more transmissible virus that has proved to be quite dangerous in the outbreaks we’ve had," he added.
The current situation, Gardner noted, is precarious and leaves the area vulnerable to a surge of cases that would require another stringent lockdown.
He believes a measure of control is lost without the stay-at-home order.
There is also still a level of unknown, given household contacts connected to Roberta Place and the two other facilities where the UK variant has been confirmed: Waypoint Centre for Mental Health Care in Penetanguishene and Bradford Valley Care Community in Bradford West Gwillimbury.
Gardner pointed to a cluster with a variant-positive case identified at a housing unit complex in Simcoe County, although he didn’t identify the specific community.
If there is indication of more of those cases testing positive for a variant, that would be an indication of its spread to another community.
The simple message to encourage people to stay at home was considered effective in reducing transmissions. Despite confirmation of the very transmissible UK variant in this area, there has been a downward trend in the number of COVID cases in Simcoe-Muskoka during the past month.
Gardner said he’s grateful that most residents of long-term care and retirement homes have been immunized, so at least there’s an increased level of protection for the frail and elderly living in facilities.
But many other environments remain vulnerable to outbreaks, including hospitals, even though many of those employees have been immunized.
“Certainly work environments, (as) we’ve seen all along, are quite vulnerable,” he said. “There are other congregate settings, group homes, that remain vulnerable.
“My concern is that we will start to see a rise in cases that will impact those venues, result in outbreaks, potentially impact on schools with exposures.”
