Possible, but not probable.
That the consensus for no 2021 Barrie property tax increase among those city council members who responded to an informal BarrieToday poll Dec. 22-24.
The zero per cent goal comes from Coun. Sergio Morales, chairman of the finance and corporate services committee.
“Obviously we don’t like to delay projects. Some things do have the flexibility to be either paused, delayed or flat-out cut, so that’s kind of what we’re looking at,” he said. “Cutting a budget…it’s definitely an art form and reduction by a thousand cuts. Getting as close (to zero per cent) as we can is going to be a mix of everything.”
At this stage in Barrie’s budget process, which sets both taxes and service levels, homeowners face a 3.59 per cent property tax increase in 2021, or paying another $160 on a typical house assessed at $367,550, up from $4,454 in taxes this year.
Mayor Jeff Lehman doesn’t rule out no tax increase, but also points to the cost.
“Yes, it’s often possible to get to a zero per cent increase. It’s possible, but is it responsible?” he asked. “By definition zero per cent means we dig a bigger hole for next year, unless the city's cost increases can be kept to zero as well.”
The mayor said the city’s forecasted costs next year are nearly flat, although policing costs are increasing. And public transit and waste collection contracts have inflationary increases, and the County of Simcoe — paramedics, social housing — is asking for considerably more.
“And I still believe we want to move the city forward,” Lehman said. “For 10 years now we have progressively done more infrastructure repair every year and we have important issues to address in the city.
“All that said, this is a year of tremendous economic uncertainty for people and we should be doing all we can to keep the increase as low as possible,” he said. “We might be able to get to zero, but it will no doubt mean just pushing off costs to next year. Nobody should have any illusions that is sustainable, without tough decisions to cut services.
“The short version is zero per cent may be possible for this year, but it will only make the pressure greater next year.”
Ward 1 Coun. Clare Riepma was of similar mind.
“The County (of Simcoe) is asking for a 4.4 per cent increase for our share of social services and the police are asking for a budget increase of 2.65 per cent,” he said. “In order for Barrie’s budget to not increase, we would have to cut services to our citizens significantly. While times are tough for a lot of folks, I don’t think this is a time to cut services.
“I am working hard to find efficiencies and to stop doing things that don’t need to be done,” Riepma said. “But I expect that there will have to be a tax increase to maintain service levels and to make improvements where we need them.”
Ward 2 Coun. Keenan Aylwin also said no tax increase comes with consequences.
“I think we need to be honest about what a zero per cent tax increase could mean for residents in the city,” he said. “The services that people in this city rely on are funded by property taxes, so a zero per cent increase would result in lower services levels and may hurt the long-term fiscal position of the city.
“We’re facing both a public health crisis and an economic crisis. Austerity - cutting programs and services - will hurt the people who rely on those services the most,” Aylwin said. “We need to recognize that people are struggling this year and ensure that the budget decisions we make don’t disproportionately hurt the working people of Barrie.”
And he identifies one service which deserves a harder look.
“The elephant in the room is the Barrie police budget which accounts for a whopping 20 per cent of the city’s overall operating budget,” Aylwin said. “If we are serious about reducing the impacts of property taxes in 2021, we need to recognize that the unfettered growth in the police budget while Barrie’s population has remained relatively stable and crime is low, is completely unsustainable.
“Calling for a zero per cent tax increase while refusing to ask the police to reduce their budget could result in significant service cuts in social services, social housing, long-term care, paramedics services, road maintenance, public health and so much more. We should be investing in crime prevention and social supports. This is not only a more compassionate approach, but a more cost- effective one, too.”
Ward 3 Coun. Ann-Marie Kungl said she has serious doubts about no tax increase in 2021.
“I do not believe a zero per cent increase is likely,” she said, noting the County of Simcoe has already approved its budget, including the city’s costs, and that service partners like the conservation authorities and the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit have legislated authority to apply charges to municipalities without council approval.
“I think it is most prudent to ensure a balance between service continuity and responsiveness to residents, and cost recovery that is not deferred to have a larger impact in a following year,” she said, “especially when we cannot yet forecast the residual impact COVID-19 will continue to have.”
Deputy Mayor Barry Ward, also the Ward 4 councillor, noted the city has learned it will receive $1.3 million in funding from the federal/provincial Safe Restart Program, which can be applied against any 2021 property tax increase.
“It will still be a challenge to get to zero. I’ve only just started to go through the city’s 2021 business plan (budget) but it’s obvious, without further provincial funding, we’ll have to make some serious service cuts to achieve zero percent,” he said.
Ward said that some of the cuts proposed by staff in the budget, such as pulling out of the Georgian Theatre and closing the city’s recreation centres on weekends in the summer, are likely to make some residents unhappy.
“We’d have to do much more than that to reach zero,” he said. “Other possibilities would be postponing infrastructure work, such as road rehabilitation, or taking money from reserves, neither of which would be advisable and both of which would only create more pain down the road.
“It will be difficult but we’ll try to minimize any budget increase,” he said.
Ward 5 Coun. Robert Thomson said the budget process is fluid.
“Council in June gave direction to staff to work towards a 1.95 per cent tax increase (not counting the one per cent dedicated infrastructure renewal fund),” he said. “COVID-19 has had a huge impact on the city both operationally and a direct impact to our residents.
“I will be reviewing the recommendations of staff and balancing the expectations of our residents with the desire to get our tax increase as low as possible. Certainly…anything is ‘possible’. Council has recently expressed interest in reducing the 1.95 per cent direction previously given to staff, so there appears to be a will to consider something less.”
Ward 7 Coun. Gary Harvey noted the budget process still has a ways to go.
“It is too early to definitely be able to say if zero percent is possible without depleting reserves significantly,” he said. “In the end our goal will be to get as close to zero as possible, as even pre-pandemic no one likes tax increases.
“Back in the summer I had a motion on the table to decrease the staff direction for the draft budget by one per cent. However it did not receive support.”
Ward 8 Coun. Jim Harris said everything is on the table in budget talks.
“With the understanding that COVID has affected both residents and businesses, I’m committed to doing whatever we can to minimize the impact for 2021,” he said. “The possibility of maintaining a zero per cent (increase) was discussed by council… and there was interest in working toward this direction.”
Ward 10 Coun. Mike McCann said he sees the glass half full on no 2021 tax hike.
“Anything is possible, if it comes down to it,” he said. “I would love to have a zero percent tax increase; every year I look for a zero percent tax increase, and I’m telling you in the near future there will be a zero percent tax increase, if I have anything to do with it.
“But under the circumstances right now, with service (partners) asking for more, and with COVID, I’m not saying no and I’m cautiously optimistic that in the very near future I will be championing a zero percent tax increase.”
Morales has said his plan is to use a combination of the city’s federal/provincial funding to battle COVID-19, lower city operating costs while on pandemic shutdown, use any 2020 property tax surplus against next year’s tax increase, reserves and dividends from the city’s stake in electricity provider Alectra to get to zero per cent.
“Alectra dividends that we get are constant,” said the Ward 9 councillor. “They’re revenue to support city of Barrie taxpayers, so in my opinion it’s absolutely prudent to use those consistent and steady dividends that we get to offset any property tax increase. Tapping into it in this one-time situation would be appropriate.”
Morales said the one per cent dedicated infrastructure renewal levy, used to help replace and renew the city’s roads, pipes and buildings, is also in his sights.
“It’s on the table, yes. The levy is on the table for being paused this year,” he said. “I would prefer to look for savings elsewhere. It doesn’t mean that we’re not doing infrastructure repair. It just means this is the one time we don’t contribute. Is that the end of the world? No. You’re doing it for the right reasons.”
Morales did say he was prepared to cut city services to get to zero, but only to those services that it makes sense to cut, scale back or delay during the response to the pandemic.
Councillors will hear from their service partners — Barrie police, paramedics and the County of Simcoe — on Jan. 11, 2021, deliberate property taxes and service levels on Jan. 18 and are scheduled to pass the budget Jan. 25.
