Though Premier Doug Ford promised “good news” about potentially lifting COVID restrictions this week, the Simcoe-Muskoka region’s medical officer of health says it’s too soon to reopen.
Protecting the health-care system as well as in-person learning requires a cautious reopening approach, according to Dr. Charles Gardner of the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit.
“We’re in a situation right now where the health-care system is very vulnerable,” Gardner said during Wednesday's media briefing. “Any move away from the controls we have in place right now could further endanger their status.”
In Simcoe-Muskoka, there are 32 people from the region currently hospitalized because of COVID-19 and six of them are in intensive care units (ICUs).
The age of those hospitalized ranges from teens to people in their 90s with 80 per cent of those hospitalized being individuals over 60 years old. There are three people hospitalized with the Delta strain of COVID and two with early indications of the Omicron strain. Testing data to determine the COVID strain has not been returned for the remaining hospital cases.
Twenty of the people who are hospitalized are fully vaccinated with two or more doses.
Hospitals across Simcoe County and Muskoka District are caring for 84 COVID-positive patients from inside and outside the region in acute care beds and 10 in ICUs. Of those, 41 people were admitted for other reasons but tested positive for COVID.
According to the health unit, nearly 92 per cent of acute care (non-ICU) beds in Simcoe-Muskoka are occupied. About 82.5 per cent of ICU beds in the region are occupied and nearly 55 per cent of ICU ventilator beds in the region are occupied.
Bed occupancy rates include both COVID-positive patients and those in the hospital for other reasons.
In Ontario, about 24 per cent of the total intensive care unit beds are currently occupied by COVID patients and another 55 per cent of the total beds are occupied by patients admitted for other reasons.
The latest provincial update stated there are 4,132 COVID positive patients hospitalized, about 2,189 people are there because of COVID related illness and the remaining 1,943 patients were admitted for a different reason but still test positive for COVID-19.
“There is still some increase in hospitalization and ICU admission,” said Gardner. “After transmission, you later see impacts in hospitalization, in severity, and in death.”
There have been 12 deaths reported by the health unit in the last week. Several were residents of long-term care homes, and seven of the people who died were vaccinated with at least two doses.
“I’m concerned that we still have a growing level of transmission and a heavily impacted health-care system,” said Gardner.
The impacts to the health-care system also come in the form of staff calling in sick and being required to quarantine, and increased resources required to treat patients who are COVID-positive, regardless if that was their primary reason for admission.
Testing in Ontario is limited mostly to people living and working in high-risk settings and congregate care, so provincial labs are not catching the true number of COVID cases in communities.
In Simcoe-Muskoka, the cases that have been captured by testing have dropped by about 17 per cent compared to last week.
The percentage of people who test positive has also dropped both in the region (from 20 per cent to 17 per cent) and in the province (22 per cent from 27 per cent).
However, there have been more cases reported so far in January in Simcoe-Muskoka (7,002 cases) than in any other entire month during the pandemic, even with reduced testing.
“I believe we should continue as we are for the time being until we have more of an indication the impact on our healthcare system, on our hospitals, is easing,” said Gardner. “We need to make sure that we’re not moving before our health-care system could withstand the potential for some resurgence.”
When the time does come to lift restrictions, Gardner said he hoped it was based on research and guidance from the Ontario COVID-19 Science Table.
Schools reopened this week for in-person learning, but with only two days of class so far, the impact of back-to-class is unknown for the local COVID situation.
“It’s very important that everyone participates in the protection of that environment,” said Gardner, reiterating his call for vigilance in daily screening, wearing masks and staying home if you are ill.
Ontario has been at a modified Step 2 of the Roadmap to Reopen since Jan. 5. Schools returned to in-person learning on Jan. 17 and 18, depending on the weather.
