Though cases in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals have been reported in the region, statistics still show unvaccinated people are more likely to get the virus, and more likely to be hospitalized.
In the Simcoe-Muskoka region, data collected over the last eight weeks indicates the rate of COVID cases among unvaccinated individuals (over 12 years old) is seven times higher than the rate of cases among vaccinated individuals over 12 years old.
The cumulative incidence rate over the last eight weeks is 117 cases per 100,000 vaccinated people (aged 12 and over), and 850 cases per 100,000 unvaccinated people (aged 12 and over).
Based on health unit reporting, 85 per cent of the over-12 population in Simcoe-Muskoka is fully vaccinated, and 12 per cent is unvaccinated. So, while the number of vaccinated people testing positive is close to the number of unvaccinated people testing positive, the incidence rate or percentage for the unvaccinated population shows a higher transmission among unvaccinated individuals.
There’s a significantly higher hospitalization rate in the region for unvaccinated people as well.
The health unit reports the cumulative hospitalization rates over the last eight weeks are 4.7 cases per 100,000 vaccinated people over 12 years old, and 57.7 cases per 100,000 unvaccinated people over 12 years old.
“Unvaccinated hospitalized cases were, on average, 13 years younger than the fully vaccinated hospitalized cases,” said Simcoe-Muskoka medical officer of health Dr. Charles Gardner during his latest update on Nov. 24. “In other words, if you’re unvaccinated, you’re at a higher risk, even if you’re younger.”
Over the last eight weeks, 20 per cent of the hospitalized, unvaccinated cases in the region were individuals under 40 years old. There were no fully vaccinated individuals under 40 years old hospitalized with COVID during that time.
“There is a significant likelihood of being admitted to hospital even if you’re under 40 years old if you’re unimmunized and you become a case,” said Gardner.
Last week, Gardner said although a vaccinated person is less likely to get COVID, the chance goes up if they are in close contact with an unvaccinated person, simply because the unvaccinated person is more likely to have COVID.
The health unit has noted a surge in cases in the region, with a growth rate of around 3.7 per cent since Oct. 1.
“If this continues, we would surpass 100 cases per day in early December,” said Gardner.
Such case counts were reported in April, at the peak of the third wave of COVID-19, but the region’s cases dropped to about three per day by the end of July. Currently, there are about 50 to 70 cases per day reported to the health unit.
By age, it’s youth under 12 that make up the greatest number of local cases, followed by young adults aged 18 to 34 years old, then adults aged 35 to 64 years old.
Infection rates are lowest in the over-79 age group.
Gardner issued a letter of instruction and an order under the Health Promotion and Protection Act, requiring public health measures he said are meant to address the rising case counts and reduce transmission.
Both are aimed at younger age groups.
“We have seen very much transmission happening in schools,” said Gardner.
The class order that took effect Nov. 24 expands the rules for self-isolation to require anyone 18 years old and under who is not fully vaccinated and who shares a house with a person who had close contact with a COVID-positive person to self-isolate for the same length of time as the close contact.
For a fact sheet on self-isolation requirements from the health unit, click here.
The health unit will also soon require children aged 12 to 18 to provide proof of vaccination to participate in organized sports in indoor venues.
Starting today (Nov. 26), all individuals aged 12 and above who are attending indoor sports or recreation venues as coaches, volunteers, or officials are required to provide proof of two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine for entry to the venues.
Youth attending the same venues as participants (not coaching) will have to show proof of at least one dose starting Dec. 8 and two doses starting Feb. 16.
You can read the full list of health unit rules for sports, fitness and recreation facilities on the health unit website here.
