Halloween in Barrie is typically soggy and cold but this year might just be the trick.
Monday's weather looks favourable for all the little costume-clad ghouls and their parents who won't have to battle about bundling up.
"I think it's more of a treat than a trick on Halloween," said Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips.
"Temperatures will be around 11 or 12 degrees which is about 3 degrees warmer than normal. Towards midnight there's a forty percent chance of showers. Forty percent - I don't even carry an umbrella."
There's only been one dry Halloween in the last seven years without snow or rain.
The pressure is on forecasters to get it right, says Phillips because Halloween is one of the most important days of the year for children when it comes to weather.
Speculation intensified about the forecast for the big night after Barrie received anywhere from 2 to 5 cm of snow Thursday and maybe even more further to the north and in elevated areas.
But Philips says it's not our 'white Christmas' snow and it won't stick around.
"Clearly this is not going to be snow that people are going to ski on," said Phillips. "It's a reminder of what's coming our way but not for a while. This is not the permanent snow cover. It's just nature's way of reminding us to get the snow tires on and get the snow shovel out and put away the lawn furniture."
About three-quarters of the Octobers have snow, according to the veteran weather expert, and it could be a little or a lot.
He remembers Oct. 26, 1997 when Barrie got about 16 cm of snow but it didn't stay.
Phillips warns that because lakes are warm, when it really does turn cold we could be in for lots of the white stuff.
"Barrie certainly may be liable to some heavy dumps of snow because the water is so warm and with some cold air it's the perfect recipe for turning on the lake effect snow engine."
Right now he says the warm air and cold air are "duking it out" over Southern Ontario and temps will warm up on Saturday.
"My gosh, even on the Tuesday after Halloween on Nov. 1 it's going to feel more like fall not winter with temperatures that could be maybe five or six degrees warmer than normal although it looks like a soggy day. Then the rest of the week temperatures that are warmer than normal."
Fall is the transition season and weather can change on a dime, he says.
"If you don't like the weather out your front door look out your back door," he jokes. "It's the time when you can get four seasons in one day- it can be snowing, raining, sun can be out. It's really fickle and fitful at this time of the year."
A bonus to all this is the leaves have stayed on the trees much later and longer this year so procrastinators can still get out and enjoy fall colours.
"Nothing's better than the Barrie, Simcoe area in this time of the year," Phillips said. "The landscape is never more beautiful and you're still week's away until snow arriving permanently until next spring."
That means more leaf ranking and not snow shovelling over the next week or two.
