If you lamented the cool, wet summer of 2017 then break out the sun block and crank the AC because fall is off to a blazing start.
"This weekend will be a big scorcher," said Peter Kimbell, Environment Canada Meteorologist. "The normal high this time of year is 18. We're looking for highs of 30 on the weekend and with humidex values, it will be creeping up close to 40. So extraordinarily hot and muggy and July-like in late September. Very unusual."
The record for the warmest Sept. 22 in Barrie was 31.1C in 1895.
The hottest Sept. 23 was 28.5C in 2004 and the hottest Sept. 24 was 35C in 2008.
"We're basically flirting with record values on the weekend," Kimbell said.
Surprisingly, or not, the mean temperature so far this month is 15C. The normal is 15.3, so Kimbell says 'we're bang on normal so far.'
But days of warm temps forecast for over the next week will bring that number up.
"We have hot, dry conditions expected. There is a chance of showers tonight and tomorrow morning early and thunderstorms but really the message is hot and dry the next five days. Really no significant change to the weather until probably next Wednesday when a cold front will come through".
So if you can sweat it out to Wednesday, there will be a big change with cool air.
"That cool air will probably linger into October. By the weekend of Sept. 30 we will probably be below normal temperatures. Highs about 15, 16."
Kimbell says that after the cool spell, there are 'hints' that the second or third week of October may be on the warm side, possibly warmer than normal.
"Logically the trend in October is down in terms of temperature. We go from a mean temperature of 15 in Sept. to a mean temperature of 8.5 in Oct. to a mean temperature of 2.7 in Nov," Kimbell explains.
The veteran forecaster says of course we can expect a couple of cm of snow to fall in October and November.
"We will see snow fly before the end of fall, of course. And then we can't really be too specific in terms of anomoly, but the hints are the second and third week of Oct. might be on the warmer side."
Heat warnings during this heat wave are unlikely because overnight lows will be just below the threshold for heat warnings.
"The nights will be much warmer than normal but they will still be cooler than what we require for issuing a heat warning," he said.
Despite the heat, the month of Sept. is still on track for normal average temps.
Remember your furnace going on in early Sept.?
"If I look at the numbers for Barrie, we had a low of 5 degrees on the sixth of September, a low of 3C on the tenth, 4C on the 11th and 5C on the 12th. Even on the first of Sept. a low of 3. A low of 2C on Sept, 2. The overnight lows basically dropped our mean temperature the first half of the month. So we had cool overnight lows the first half of the month and now were getting warm daytime highs so it balances out."
Balances yes, but what a rolle rcoaster ride.
"Weather is variable. Always has been. Always will be. It's like waves, It's up and down. Sometimes you have a summer like we had that didn't have a noteworthy big heat wave and then it comes in Sept, That's just the way is is," Kimbell said.
