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For first time in 10 weeks, region's COVID case count has decreased

'We had a sharp rise up until a week ago, and we’ve had some decline. But a week is not enough to be able to determine a trend,' says Gardner
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Dr. Charles Gardner provides a media briefing and live Facebook update on Jan. 18, 2021

For the first time in several weeks, case rates have declined in Simcoe-Muskoka region, but it’s too early to celebrate, says the region’s medical officer of health. 

Dr. Charles Gardner, the top doctor at the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit, gave a note of caution as he announced yesterday the region has seen, for the first time in 10 weeks, a dip in the case counts. 

“I very much hope this is the beginning of a trend, but certainly it’s too soon to say,” Gardner said Tuesday. “I always express caution about optimism.” 

The last seven days have also been the deadliest in the region during the pandemic so far, with the health unit announcing 16 deaths, all individuals over 65 years old. 

“We’ve had many more deaths now in the second wave than we have in the first,” said Gardner, noting about 65 per cent of deaths reported by the health unit occurred after Sept. 29. 

Area hospitals are also stretched as they care for local patients and those from other areas where the hospitals had no room for more patients. 

“We’re very much in this together,” said Gardner.

According to the health unit, the combined occupancy rate for all intensive care beds in Simcoe-Muskoka is 82.7 per cent, leaving a vacancy below 20 per cent region-wide. 

A little more than 60 per cent of the region’s ventilators are in use, and 83.8 per cent of acute care beds are occupied. 

Between Jan. 10 and Jan. 16, the health unit reported 450 new cases, 12 hospitalizations and 10 deaths, which is a decrease in cases and hospitalizations compared to the week before. 

Between Jan. 3 and Jan. 9, the health unit reported 495 new cases, 20 hospitalizations and eight deaths. 

“I’m hoping we’re actually at the beginning of a decline,” said Gardner. “We had a sharp rise up until a week ago, and we’ve had some decline. But a week is not enough to be able to determine a trend.” 

Both the province and the health unit have seen a decrease in the weekly incidence rates – that is the number of cases per 100,000 people over seven days. 

Ontario-wide, the weekly incidence rate is 142.2 cases per 100,000 people from Jan. 10 to Jan. 16, which is a decrease of 14.3 per cent compared to Jan. 4 to Jan. 10 when the average weekly incidence rate was 165.9 cases per 100,000 people.

In Simcoe-Muskoka, the rate dropped by about 10 per cent from 83 cases per 100,000 in a week (Jan. 3-9) to 75 cases per 100,000 in a week (Jan 10-17).

On a local scale, weekly incidence rates have dropped, sometimes in half, for many Simcoe County municipalities. 

Collingwood, for example, saw a weekly case incidence rate off 71 cases per 100,000 people for the week of Jan. 3. Last week, that rate dropped to 46 cases per 100,000 people. 

Bradford West Gwillimbury is at 182 cases per 100,000 people for the week of Jan. 10, down from 233 for the week of Jan. 3. 

Case rates in Orillia, Innisfil, and Midland have remained about the same between the two weeks. 

Barrie, however, has seen an increase in cases going from 82 cases per 100,000 people for the week of Jan. 3 to 125 cases per 100,000 people for the week of Jan. 10. However, a large outbreak at Roberta Place has now seen nearly 150 lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 10 resident deaths.

For more statistics on the region’s COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, visit the health unit website.

As always, Gardner is strongly urging all residents of Simcoe-Muskoka to keep their distance from anyone not from their household, to wash their hands, wear face coverings in public, and while the province’s stay at home order is in place, to avoid going out except for essentials.


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Erika Engel

About the Author: Erika Engel

Erika regularly covers all things news in Collingwood as a reporter and editor. She has 15 years of experience as a local journalist
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