A dog’s breakfast for much of the past few weeks, the Ontario Hockey League playoff picture clears up later today.
Two games – both in northern Ontario – on Sunday will decide who the Colts will open with on Thursday at Sadlon Arena.
If the Wolves beat the Greyhounds on the road in Sault Ste. Marie, then Sudbury will jump all the way up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference and play the fourth-place Peterborough Petes.
That scenario will leave the Colts with the Hamilton Bulldogs no matter what transpires in North Bay in a game between the Battalion and Mississauga Steelheads.
The most interesting potential scenario is a repeat of last year’s Eastern Conference quarterfinal between the Colts and Steelheads. For that to happen, Sudbury must lose in regulation against the Greyhounds while the Steelheads must win their game in North Bay.
If Sudbury picks up a single point in the Soo, or wins in a shootout, then the Colts will open against the Wolves.
If the Barrie-Mississauga series comes to fruition, it means that local product James Hardie, the Steelheads co-captain, will again lead his team against the club he grew up watching.
Last year, Hardie scored the overtime winner in Game 4 in double OT that tied the series at two. The Innisfil native’s goal proved to be the decisive marker as the Steelheads reeled off three consecutive wins after the double-overtime victory to beat the Colts, who were dealing with a raft of injuries, in six games.
Whatever first-round match-up takes place, the club is in a dramatically different position than it was a year ago.
Firstly, Marty Williamson’s team is healthy. Forward Tyler Savard is expected to return and defenceman Connor Punnet, who left Thursday’s game against the Wolves after a heavy collision, is on roughly the same timetable.
Special note: Injury reports at playoff time are abstract concepts.
What is fact was that last year, the Colts’ best two players, Brandt Clarke and goaltender Mack Guzda, were lost to injury either before the playoffs, or in Guzda’s case, for key games. Evan Vierling, Beau Jelsma and Declan McDonnell all either missed multiple playoff games or played hurt.
This year, not only is the infirmary dormant but the Colts have the two hottest players in the league in Clarke and Vierling. Their heroics have shielded somewhat the fine play of Ethan Cardwell, who was the Colts' top performer in last year’s post-season, scoring four times and adding two assists.
The overage winger will be looking for an even bigger and longer run this time around; the San Jose Sharks prospect cracked 90 points (43G, 47A) and is one of just a few active OHLers who saw action in the 2019 playoffs when he played five games with the Saginaw Spirit in their run to the Western Conference final.
Remember back then, when playoff series victories were a regular occurrence in these parts and the word “pandemic” was something we all learned in Grade 10 biology.
If there is a weak spot on the Colts, it’s a lack of playoff experience, though that is partially due to the cancelled post-season of 2020 and scrubbed campaign that followed because of ... well, we don’t need to go there.
As unbelievable as it sounds, Clarke, the hottest commodity in junior hockey right now not named Connor Bedard, has yet to take part in an OHL playoff game.
Another potential problem is a lack of depth up front; if Vierling and Cardwell are not filling the net, goals could be hard to come by. That’s also a hallmark of playoff hockey and shades of it were on display during Thursday night’s 4-2 win over the Wolves on home ice.
The 2022-23 Colts is the franchise’s best team since the one that lost in seven games to the London Knights in the OHL final 10 years ago. Whether this lineup has what it takes to win the Eastern Conference and get back to the OHL final will be decided over the next six weeks.
First, the Colts will need to get through one of Hamilton, Mississauga or Sudbury. The Bulldogs beat the Colts, 7-5, on home ice a few weeks ago. That setback left an odour. It happens.
Hockey teams should never look ahead but columnists are prone to it so let’s assume the Colts can take care of whoever rolls into town on Thursday night.
That’s when things will get interesting because there isn’t a lot to choose between the top four teams in the Eastern Conference. In fact, Peterborough, the fourth seed, have not been the sum of their parts for much of this season and it’s not hard to imagine either the Wolves or the Bulldogs giving the Petes a difficult series.
Stranger things have happened, but the Colts are likely headed for a second-round match-up with the North Bay Battalion. The standings and national rankings tell us that the Colts would be slight underdogs. We don’t disagree, but the Colts have also been the much hotter team since the trade deadline.
The same assessment applies to a potential 67’s-Colts Eastern Conference final series.
Suffice to say, it could be an interesting spring for a playoff-starved city and junior hockey franchise.
